Wednesday, 07 April 2004

AZERI PUBLIC EXPRESSES ANGER OVER THE IDEA OF TURKISH-ARMENIAN BORDER OPENING

Published in Field Reports

By Fariz Ismailzade (4/7/2004 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The Turkish-Armenian border has been closed since the collapse of the Soviet Union, due to Turkey\'s condemnation of the Armenian aggression on Azerbaijan and the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. On numerous occasions, Turkish government officials have stated that Turkey would open the border with Armenia and establish full diplomatic relations with this country only after occupied Azerbaijani lands are liberated. Most recently, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during his visit to Azerbaijan in 2003, reiterated his commitment to this policy.
The Turkish-Armenian border has been closed since the collapse of the Soviet Union, due to Turkey\'s condemnation of the Armenian aggression on Azerbaijan and the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. On numerous occasions, Turkish government officials have stated that Turkey would open the border with Armenia and establish full diplomatic relations with this country only after occupied Azerbaijani lands are liberated. Most recently, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during his visit to Azerbaijan in 2003, reiterated his commitment to this policy.

The Azerbaijani public and the government view this issue as an important one. First, its importance lies with the symbolic solidarity of Turkey with its ethnic and linguistic \"brother\" Azerbaijan, and symbolizes Turkish sympathy for the Azerbaijani cause. Second, Azerbaijan hopes to force Armenia into political concessions on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by maintaining a trade embargo on Armenia. Finally, Azerbaijan needs Turkey\'s alliance in keeping Armenia out of regional economic, trade and energy projects. If willing to open the border with Armenia, Turkey is risking to upset Azerbaijan on all of the above points.

Many Azerbaijani and international observers believe that there would be irreconcilable negative effects on bilateral Turkish-Azerbaijani relations should Turkey choose to open the border. By opening the border, Turkey and Armenia would not so much gain in economic terms, but it would also bolster\'s Armenia\'s policy of aggression. Hardline forces in Armenia, leading Azerbaijani observers argue, will feel even more self-reliant and bold.

Although emotional at first, the majority of Azerbaijani analysts believe that it is the desired membership in the EU and the constant pressures from this institution as well as the United States on the Turkish government that could push Turkey\'s decision to open the border and normalize relations with Armenia. But few believe that should Turkey do so, it will be granted membership at the European Union.

According to the independent daily Zerkalo, the representatives of the leading mass media outlets in Azerbaijan will travel to the Turkish-Armenian border and stage a protest action, called \"Turks supports Turks\". It will be aimed at showing Azerbaijani protest over the possible opening of the border. Meanwhile, other media representatives, such as Mirkadirov of Zerkalo, have called for a more pragmatic analysis of the situation and urged the Azerbaijani government to stop looking at the situation with idealistic naivety.

It is interesting that during this public outcry, official Baku has been keeping quiet about the issue. No doubt, the Azerbaijani government will feel extremely upset and betrayed should the border open. However, it has been doing little to pressure Ankara at the diplomatic level. The opposition daily Azadlig has even accused the ruling party and President Ilham Aliyev of selling out the interests of the nation and quietly agreeing to the idea. \"Ilham Aliyev has given his consent with the idea in order to ensure Turkey\'s support for his presidency,\" claimed the newspaper. Zerkalo, in its turn, speculated that official Baku has failed to persuade Ankara out of this idea by diplomatic means and has therefore created this public fuss in order to threaten the Turkish government with public condemnation in Azerbaijan.

In any case, the upcoming visit of Ilham Aliyev to Turkey will not be an easy one. It is clear that should the border open, it will be a significant blow to the foreign policy of Azerbaijan and its newly elected President Ilham Aliyev and will largely boost the political stance of Armenian President Kocharian. The latter is in desperate need of this support, as the Armenian opposition is mounting another wave of public protests against him. Turkey, its turn, hopes that Armenia will drop its so called \"genocide\" claims and that the opening of the border will allow Turkey to gain economic benefits as well as membership in the EU. Yet, Azeris are convinced that Turkey will be very much disappointed.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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