The handful of activists who signed the statement included the former chairman of Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan Asylbek Kozhakmetov, severely criticized by renegade DCK members for his proclivity to rule the party with an iron hand, theater director Bolat Atabayev, and the editor of the DCK party paper “Azat” Batyrkhan Darimbet. But most other party members who signed the statement are little known or totally unknown to the wider public. This raises strong doubts about the capability of the newly-baked party to muster popular support to materialize the stated aims of “fighting corruption, lawlessness and social injustice. The statement points out that “Alga, Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan!” strives to build a new state which would bear social responsibility to place natural resources at the disposal of the entire people, and not a handful of wealthy.

The attempt to resurrect the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan party under a new name may seem a proof of the vitality of the opposition movement which suffered crushing blows in the past several months following the split within the major opposition forces, the Ak Zhol Democratic party and the Communist Party of Kazakhstan. Analysts, however, note that opposition forces are losing ground after the last year’s September 19 parliamentary elections which marked the heyday of the democratic movement in Kazakhstan. In the pre-election campaign, Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, the Communist Party of Kazakhstan and Ak Zhol Democratic party showed a willingness to join forces signing a declaration about concerted pre-election tactics.

But in fact, the opposition did not represent a unified force. Opposition candidates Batyrkhan Darimbet (DCK) and Oraz Zhandosov (Ak Zhol party) failed to get seats in parliament. The opposition blamed this on election authorities, but outside observers ascribed this failure to deepening internal strife in the opposition block. Akezhan Kazhegeldin, the exiled former prime minister of Kazakhstan, said that the weakness of the opposition lies in its inability to unite and to overcome internal disputes.

The split in the Ak Zhol party, long hushed up by party leaders and disclosed at the last party Congress convened on March 13 by co-chairmen of the party Alikhan Baymenov and Ludmila Zhulanova, who lashed out at other leaders such Altynbek Sarsenbayev, Oraz Zhandosov and Bolat Abilov accusing them of deviating from the party charter, buried the last hopes for a united action. Nevertheless, after a long horse-trading at the Coordinating Committee of Democratic Forces, the opposition nominated a single candidate for presidency, Zharmakan Tuyakbay, former deputy chairman of the pro-presidential Otan party. Another notable move from the opposition was the drafting of a new proposed Constitution which, in essence, envisages the establishment of parliamentary rule in Kazakhstan, while the National Commission on Problems of Democratization, created to support the existing regime, claims that only a strong presidential power can bring about democratic changes.

Not long ago presidential advisor Yermukhamet Yertysbayev confidently declared that in Kazakhstan the opposition is not likely to succeed in winning people for a Kyrgyz-style “revolution”. His main arguments are that the well-off middle class, affluent property owners who dislike any idea of idea of upheavals, form the pillar of the Kazakh society. Yertysbayev seems to be convinced that regime change, “which is inevitable”, and power struggle between the ruling elite and the opposition will pass off peacefully, within the legal framework. Well-known political scientist Yerlan Karin holds the same view.

The greatest pitfall for the democratic movement in Kazakhstan is the ethnic division which loomed large at the Congress of the “For Fair Kazakhstan” block of democratic forces held on March 20. Activists of the Kazakh national-patriotic movement protested that Congress delegates ignored economic and political interests of Kazakhs and issued a statement announcing the creation of a National Front of Kazakhstan. The pro-presidential AIST parliamentary faction and pseudo-communists headed by Vyacheslav Kosarev loyal to the regime retaliated promptly by setting up a National-Democratic Front as a counterweight. The slogan of democracy is the magic sword both for opposition and the regime. But so far it is effectively being used only by the latter.