Acting president of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiev’s April 22 visit to Almaty did not and could not make a front-page story in Kazakhstan’s media. Not only because of his present ambiguous official rank, but also because he came to Almaty humbly seeking assistance to restore the paralyzed economy of his country, in what looked like a visit of a poor nephew to a rich uncle. Nursultan Nazarbayev treated his Kyrgyz guest in a condescending manner, generously dishing out everything Kurmanbek Bakiev asked for: grain, diesel oil and lubricants, aviation fuel and promises of huge Kazakh investments in Kyrgyzstan’s economy. To some extent, it signaled a sudden change of mood in Astana, for just a few weeks before Bakiev’s visit Kazakh president aired the view that “events in Kyrgyzstan were a mistake”. The phrase suggested that he was not going to reconcile himself with Kyrgyz “usurpers” so soon. But after the talks with Bakiev, for the first time he clearly articulated to the press that he accepts political realities in Kyrgyzstan and is willing to maintain the warm relations that existed in the Akayev era. He emphasized the ethnic closeness of the two nations. “There is nothing to divide Kazakhs and the Kyrgyz. What is done is done. We are fraternal peoples, and we will continue our traditional relations”, the Kazakh leader said.

Kurmanbek Bakiev kept a low profile during the talks that suited his current position best, but he got everything he bargained for. Experts estimate that the Tulip revolution cost the Kyrgyz economy $100 million. However strong fraternal sentiments towards the Kyrgyz people may be, it is difficult for Kazakhstan to resist the temptation of taking advantage of its neighbor’s current vulnerable economic situation. Nazarbayev used this opportunity to resume Kazakhstan’s claims on four resorts on the Kyrgyzstan’s renowned Lake Issyk-kul built by Kazakhstan in the socialist era. Property rights on these resorts were debated between the neighbors from time to time, but under Akayev the sides never came near to a compromise solution. In 2003, the Kyrgyz government unilaterally declared the resorts the property of Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakh prime-minister Daniyal Akhmetov responded promptly, setting up a government commission to settle the dispute. This resolute step forced Kyrgyzstan to abandon its claims. Talks with Kurmanbek Bakiev produced some kind of a compromise on this vexed issue and the sides agreed on using the resorts jointly.

Another unraveled knot was the maintenance of the Kyrgyz sector of the gas pipeline which runs from Uzbekistan to South Kazakhstan via Kyrgyzstan. In past years, this pipeline caused much irritation for the Kazakh government, which accused Kyrgyzstan of stealing gas from the pipeline. Officials of the Kazakh gas transportation company Kaztransgaz estimate that in 2004, the amount of gas stolen by Kyrgyzstan cost the Kazakh gas industry $5 million. Kaztransgaz was even contemplating the construction of a bypass pipeline to avoid the Kyrgyz transit route. But that costly project would hardly be technically feasible. So far, Kurmanbek Bakiev and Nursultan Nazarbayev reached a preliminary agreement on joint technical maintenance of the gas pipeline. Kazakhstan showed readiness to allot $20 million to repair the pipeline. Undoubtedly, the sum will palpably sap the tight budget of Kazakhstan. But the acute shortage of Uzbek gas supplies to South Kazakhstan demands some sacrifice.

Kurmanbek Bakiev stressed that he would welcome Kazakh investors in Kyrgyzstan and investment security would be guaranteed. Given the miserable state of the financial sector of Kyrgyzstan and the ongoing political turmoil, these assurances sound hollow. Under the previous Kyrgyz regime, projects of setting up joint ventures to develop the water and energy resources of the Naryn and Syrdarya rivers, and the construction of the Kambarata hydroelectric power station in Kyrgyzstan largely remained on paper. The prospect is even less encouraging now. It is hard to expect heavy investments in industrial enterprises of Kyrgyzstan.

More than 70% of the holiday-makers in the Issyk-kul resorts come from Kazakhstan. But this year, many Kazakhstani citizens will be deterred from going to Issyk-kul by rumors of lawlessness and violence raging in the area. Kyrgyz tourist industry officials came to Almaty on April 27 to encourage Kazakh citizens to travel to Issyk-kul. Kazakh authorities also fear the growing number of Kyrgyz labor migrants to tobacco plantations in South Kazakhstan who do not possess passports. This contributes to the rise of criminality.

There is little reason to hope that bilateral relations will be normalized before the presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan. Any strongman capable of restoring peace and order in the neighboring country would be welcome for Kazakhstan.