NEW TURNS IN CHINESE POLICY TOWARDS CENTRAL ASIA
By Stephen Blank (6/15/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: In the wake of the Andijon massacre and Kyrgyz revolution, we may discern the following new and significant trends in Chinese policy, possibly due to these events. China has abandoned its earlier reticence about former Russian Prime Minister Evgeny Primakov’s strategic triangle with Russia and India and agreed to a meeting of Foreign Ministers of the three states in Vladivostok on June 2. At this meeting the war on terror, access to Central Asian energy (including Iran), and the issue of uprisings in Central Asia were discussed among the participants although we do not know what practical conclusions, if any, they reached.NEW MILITARY TRENDS IN THE CASPIAN
By Stephen Blank (6/1/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: On May 16, Iran signed a non-aggression pact with Azerbaijan stipulating that the two countries are not allowed to provide a third country with bases to attack either of them, clearly an effort to forestall American bases there from which Iran can be attacked. Iran’s role in these developments needs some clarification. Several developments seem to have come together recently to move Iranian diplomacy to take a more active role in the defense agenda of the Caspian.TBILISI SOFTENS TALK BUT NOT STANCE ON RUSSIAN BASES
By Jaba Devdariani (6/1/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: President Mikheil Saakashvili has attempted, but failed to normalize relations with Russia following his election in 2004. Frustrated at the lack of progress in political relations, as well as regarding the frozen conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Saakashvili’s administration made the issue of Russia’s Batumi and Akhalkalaki bases a test of the Kremlin’s goodwill to improve bilateral ties. In March 2005, the Georgian parliament, with nuanced support from the government, passed a resolution laying out a plan for forcefully withdrawing the Russian bases, if no progress was reached in political talks.REVOLT AND REPRESSION IN UZBEKISTAN: THE DILEMMA OF WESTERN RESPONSE
By Michael Fredholm (6/1/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Widespread repression of political opponents is a fact of daily life in Uzbekistan. So is the persistent problem of the country’s weak Soviet-style economy which has caused living standards to fall for substantial segments of the population. As organized secular political opposition to Uzbekistan’s president Islam Karimov is all but erased within Uzbekistan, the main remaining source of opposition to the government is based on Islam and often influenced by Islamic extremist thought.Visit also
Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.