By Stephen Blank (5/4/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: While it is true that Georgia’s Rose Revolution of November, 2003 inspired opposition groups in Central Asia, it is more accurate to say that it really was the stimulus provided by Ukraine’s orange revolution of November-December, 2004 that galvanized sufficient domestic opposition in Kyrgyzstan to then overthrow the Akayev regime. While the Kyrgyz revolution was triggered by the Akayev regime’s efforts to steal the election and continue looting the country on behalf of Akayev’s family and cronies; it clearly was stimulated by two related and converging trends. One of them was Ukraine’s orange revolution, and the second was the revulsion felt at home against a corrupt regime that systematically threatened to use force to keep itself in power.By Inomjon Bobokulov (4/20/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Central Asia is considered to be the heart of Eurasia, serving as the linking point between East and West as well as between North and South. It is a gateway to Europe for China, South and South East Asia, and it is pivotal in the relationships between Russia and the Southern Asian countries. The region is served by an extensive national rail and road system, but it has no direct access to the sea or to the world’s transport networks.By Anar Valiyev (4/20/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: During the commemoration of the Khojali massacre in late February, the Azerbaijani public was shocked by a pornographic scandal connected with Ganimat Zahidov, the editor-in-chief of the opposition Azadlig newspaper. On February 25, Zahidov and the Azadlig technical director Azer Ahmedov were both kidnapped and physically abused by a group of unknown people. During the press conference on the next day, Zahidov maintained that the kidnappers were beating him for publishing critical articles about President Aliyev.By Pulat Shozimov (4/20/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: One important implication of the Kyrgyz revolution was that it showed the political strength of the hitherto neglected southern regions of the country. The revolution may being southern forces to power, and has in any case strengthened the political power of the South. In this sense, the recent Kyrgyz events are reminiscent of the regionalism that characterized Tajikistan civil war in 1992-97.The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.
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