By Robert M. Cutler (4/8/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The leaders of Russia and Turkmenistan have been unable to agree on terms for the (re)construction of a Soviet-era gas pipeline in western Turkmenistan. While subsequent negotiations are not excluded, Ashgabat has declared its intent to allow companies other than Gazprom, including Western companies, to bid for the work. In the context of recent developments, a pattern begins to form that may signify the breaking of what is left of Russia’s hold on Central Asian gas transport, to which its relationship with Turkmenistan has been central in the post-Soviet era.

By Umida Hashimova (4/8/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The common Soviet plan for regional water and energy sharing, exchange and management disappeared with the independence of individual republics. The break up of the Soviet Union divided the Central Asian countries into those controlling water upstream and those that depended on them downstream. So far, failure to agree on the distribution of water among these states has resulted in exerting political and economic pressure on one another, sometimes to situations almost escalating into interstate armed conflict.

By Kevin Daniel Leahy (4/8/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)

A recent well-publicized exchange between Vladimir Putin and Ramzan Kadyrov has given rise to speculation as to whether the Chechen president has finally exhausted the Russian premier’s patience with him. But in their haste to identify fissures in the Putin-Kadyrov relationship, observers are overlooking more obvious tensions elsewhere in the Moscow-Grozny relationship, tensions that are becoming increasingly apparent amid the worsening economic situation in Russia.   

BACKGROUND: On March 20, Ramzan Kadyrov arrived at Novo Ogarevo for an audience with Vladimir Putin.