BACKGROUND: Georgia’s Central Election Commission has announced the results with all votes cast on March 28 counted. These results are not officially final, as re-vote was scheduled in two districts of the Ajarian Autonomous Republic, Khulo and Kobuleti, on April 18. The count shows the Mikheil Saakashvili’s National Movement-Democrats (NMD) in the lead with 67.02% of the votes cast and the Rightist Opposition bloc of two parties – New Rights and Industrialists – a distant second with 7.67%. Thus, out of 150 seats elected from the party lists the ruling bloc gained 135 and the opposition 15 seats. None of the other parties, including Aslan Abashidze’s Revival Union, were able to cross the 7% threshold necessary to gain seats in the parliament. Importantly, the preliminary statements of the international observers evaluate the vote as a “step forward” towards free and fair elections. The vote count for the 75 single-mandate Constituency MPs elected in first-past-the-post districts on November 2 was allowed to stand. The affiliation of these MPs will determine the final composition of the new Georgian parliament. 19 of these MPs supported president Shevardnadze, while the National Movement-Democrats have 17 MPs, the Rightist Opposition 8, the opposition Labor Party 4, and Abashidze’s Revival Union 6. Runoff elections are scheduled in one constituency. As a result, the ruling coalition would have 152 MPs and the Rightist Opposition 23. Hence, the NMD does not have a ‘clear’ constitutional majority of 157 votes (2/3 of the 235-member chamber plus one MP). Nonetheless, in practice the ruling coalition should be able to garner the constitutional majority, relying on those 19 Constituency MPs who supported the former president.

IMPLICATIONS: The parliamentary vote has confirmed the high public confidence in the leaders of the November 2003 ‘Rose Revolution’. However, despite some concerns for single-party rule, the vote showed that the opposition retains its voter base in Georgia. The overall voter turnout of 65% was high by European standards, but lower than usual for Georgia. Lower turnout figures were recorded in the capital. Experts tend to suggest that many supporters of the ruling party stayed at home, assured of their victory. In this sense, the clearing of the 7% threshold by the Rightist Opposition indicates that they managed to bring their voters to the polling stations. The party also showed the political weight that is vested in nation-wide outreach and strength of local chapters. According to preliminary results, in 52 out of 75 election districts the Rightist Opposition came second after the National Movement-Democrats. The March 28 elections showed Revival’s ratings plunge throughout Georgia, following Aslan Abashidze’s standoff with Saakashvili. Humiliatingly for Abashidze, the NMD carried the vote in Ajaria’s capital, Batumi. Results in several districts in Ajaria were annulled, as local administrators loyal to Abashidze obstructed the election process. This success will give Saakashvili serious leverage over the recalcitrant local leader Abashidze, whose rule stands to be delegitimized by such a result. His Revival Union now lost its parliamentary representation through the party list for the first time since its establishment in 1995. This is likely to contribute to abolishing the parallel political system in Ajaria. However, Abashidze has launched a bid to act as a focal point for the opposition that has failed to clear the threshold. The Labour Party, disappointed by its poor showing in the elections, is reported to be in talks with Abashidze over common strategy. Labour is alleging ballot fraud in favour of the ruling party and appealed 72 out of 75 district commission results in court. The poor performance of the opposition heralds a change in the political elite. However, Saakashvili is unlikely to secure a rubber-stamp parliament, and a new opposition is bound to emerge both within and outside parliament. Along with the Rightist Opposition, one of the single-member constituency MPs, Niko Lekishvili, has announced an intention to create a faction consisting of some 30 of his colleagues. Lekishvili, a former administrative functionary in the Communist Party, was a State Minister under Shevardnadze in the mid-1990s and is one of Georgia’s political heavyweights. Lekishvili faction is likely to be in tactical alliance with the ruling party, but may join the opposition on some issues, especially economic policies. The National Movement-Democrats are not a coherent entity, but a coalition of several parties. Political differences exist among the radical wing of Saakashvili\'s National Movement and the allied Republican Party, the centrist former team of Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania, and the moderate conservatives of Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze. Some of the NMD’s own young political cadre and professionals are likely to seek limelight by being active in the parliamentary committees. In the short term, the ruling coalition will encounter strongest opposition from outside parliament. At least some of the political parties that failed on March 28 will stay intact to run in the 2005 local elections. The private media and NGOs are also a formidable force. Some civil society organizations and think tanks are in a good position to provide specific, alternative policy agendas and to use the media to voice their views.

CONCLUSIONS: The new parliament, dominated by a single political grouping, should provide an efficient basis for speedy political and, especially, economic reforms in close partnership with the government. The parliament is set to endorse the legislative initiatives of the government in the fields of law enforcement and the judiciary, such as introducing the revised Criminal Procedure Code. The Rightist Opposition and Lekishvili’s faction are likely to stir a debate on taxation and revenue collection reforms which are to be reviewed already in May. Industrialists (now members of the Rightist Opposition) proposed their own tax code last year, which was adopted in the first hearing. Relations with Ajaria will remain central in the short term. If Abashidze does not succumb to the strengthening of opposition to his rule within Ajaria, relations with Tbilisi are likely to enter a more stable phase of haggling over a constitutional settlement on the division of responsibilities.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Jaba Devdariani is an analyst of South Caucasus affairs and founder of the internet magazine Civil Georgia (www.civil.ge)