BACKGROUND: During the summit, leaders vowed to reactivate the ECO. Pakistan was the torchbearer of this idea. While reasserting Pakistani President Musharaff’s “enlightened moderation” as a prescription for peace & harmony, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz proposed a strategy, which calls for result-oriented policies within ECO, suggesting that an implementation mechanism should be devised by member states. The declaration issued at the end of the summit recognized transport and communication, trade and development as priority areas. A fund was set up to finance reconstruction of Afghanistan. So far, Pakistan has promised to contribute $5 million to the fund. The fund would be used to finance regional energy projects. It was also suggested that the fund could be used for infrastructure projects, such as a proposed highway link between Iran and Tajikistan that would pass through northern Afghanistan. Historically, the ECO is never been short of plans. In 1992, a Preferential Tariff Arrangement between Pakistan, Iran and Turkey was established. It provides for 10% reduction in tariffs on a list of specific items. Six ECO Institutions and two regional arrangements were created in 1995, including ECO Trade and Development Bank, ECO Reinsurance Company, ECO Shipping Company, ECO Air, ECO Cultural Institute (Tehran) and ECO Science Foundation (Islamabad). The two agreements that have come into effect are the ECO Transit Trade Agreement and the Agreement on Simplification of Visa Procedures for Businessmen of ECO Countries. In 1997, the Development of Transport and Communications Infrastructure and a Network of Transnational Pipelines in the ECO region were tabled. The project-oriented Almaty Outline Plan underscores the importance of a modern transport and communication infrastructure linking the ECO member-states with each other and with the outside world by road, railway, and air. The establishment of the Trade and Development Bank in Istanbul and the Re-insurance Company in Karachi would provide further impetus for enhanced intra and inter-regional trade. The Communiqué issued at the end of the Dushanbe summit 2004 stressed the importance of implementing the Trans-Asian Railway main line, which connects Almaty to Istanbul. It also emphasized the need to strengthen the Drug Control Coordination Unit (DCCU) at the ECO Secretariat.

IMPLICATIONS: Among the ECO states, Pakistan and Afghanistan can play the most vital role. Pakistan’s capital is closer to many Central Asian cities than to some of its own. It offers the shortest trade route to the sea. Pakistan has put in place the relevant services, which range from transport and trade to business and joint ventures from banking and insurance to technical expertise. It is developing additional infrastructure facilities, which would serve both bilateral and transit trade, through the Gwadar and Karachi ports. During the ECO summit, a trilateral dialogue between Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan took place on a two-point agenda of land and road links (for which Pakistan’s National Engineering Services would study the final route) and buying electricity from Tajikistan using the same route. The possibility of establishing a regional electricity grid, which could also meet the energy requirements of Pakistan, is also under consideration. Tajikistan is selling its power to Russia ca. 4,000 kilometers away. Pakistan is building a 14-kilometer road link with Afghanistan through the Wakhan corridor to speed up economic activities, and this road link is seen as a road and power link onward to Tajikistan just across the Wakhan corridor. Islamabad and Dushanbe agreed upon connecting the two countries through a road link. Pakistan is also evaluating the prospects of linking Peshawar to Termez in Uzbekistan and Chaman to Kushka in Turkmenistan. Tajikistan’s consulate in Islamabad will also be upgraded to embassy level, while a branch of a Pakistani bank will be established in Dushanbe. Pakistan has agreed to reschedule its $13 million loan to Kyrgyzstan. On the other hand, Iran pursues its strategy to expand relations with the regional states. Its trade with Tajikistan has tripled in recent years. Tehran has also proposed that reforming the mechanisms of ECO decision-making and establishing an ECO free trade zone will help reactivating the organization.

CONCLUSIONS: The Dushanbe Declaration is the culmination of a series of efforts and developments for strengthening the ECO framework for regional cooperation through the conclusion of bilateral and multilateral agreements to promote trade, commercial relations and economic cooperation. There are nevertheless a number of impediments in reactivating the ECO. The establishment of a free trade zone is difficult when basic infrastructure necessary in this regard is lacking. Result-oriented cooperation at a people-to-people level is also missing. Leaders who want to see the ECO as intra-regional link cannot ignore the importance of political will to integrate their economic interests, especially when three of them – Iran, Pakistan and Turkey – are in competition in Central Asia when it comes to some areas. The Dushanbe summit emphasized the importance of developing transport links, which can be materialized only when member states have transformed their internal infrastructures accordingly. It is nevertheless unlikely to work unless non-governmental organizations come forward to promote interaction in trade, commerce, education, tourism, and other fields. Cooperation at the non-governmental level was an important prerequisite for the success of the EU and ASEAN, but such a trend is presently not to be seen among the ECO states. Travel and trade restrictions due to authoritarian regimes, religious extremism and the terrorist threat continue to discourage the pace of regional cooperation and those who want to link the ECO members through joint ventures. Most of the ECO member states are experiencing terrorism, religious militancy, increases in drug trafficking, and numerous inter- and intra-state conflicts. Afghanistan’s continued instability also remains a major obstruction for expediting the process of cooperation. In the presence of such circumstances, implementing the declarations passed by various ECO summits is a difficult task. Reactivating the ECO will require a pragmatic approach on the part of all states, especially the larger members. That is in turn dependent on the internal processes in the ECO member countries, and the struggle against terrorism and drug trafficking. If the situation in Afghanistan stabilizes and the ECO member governments ease trade and travel restrictions, much can be done to reactivate ECO. Such a task is difficult but remains attainable.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Asma Shakir Khawaja is an Islamabad-based political analyst specializing on the issues related to the Caspian region. She is currently working at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute.