At the joint session of the senate and majilis (lower chamber of Kazakh parliament) on June 19 Nurbakh Rustemov, a member of parliament, read out a letter to President Nursultan Nazarbayev asking him to dissolve the majilis which, in his words, “obstructs the reforms’ in the country. Nazarbayev was not slow to respond to the “will of people’s representatives” and with a stroke of a pen dissolved the lower chamber of parliament.

A day after majilis deputies issued a suicidal letter to the head of the state signed by 61 members of the lower house, President Nazarbayev, speaking at the meeting of the pro-presidential Nur Otan party, announced his decision to dissolve the lower chamber of parliament. “Taking into consideration the fact that in your appeal you expressed the collective will of the people’s representatives which was supported by our national Nur Otan party, I would like to assure you that I take this step seriously and weighing all pros and cons I must take a decision which best answers the interests of progressive development of our country,” he said addressing the deputies who had signed the letter.

A situation in which parliament members give up their well-paid positions at their own will is something from the domain of the surreal. But, at closer look, there is a great deal of logic in the “collective madness” of the majilis deputies. After President Nazarbayev initiated a number of constitutional amendments last May, including new election procedures and mechanisms for the functioning of Parliament, majilis deputies found themselves in a precarious situation. The current composition of majilis includes 77 deputies, but according to the amendments to the election law, their number should be increased up to 107.  According to new regulations, the senate members can take up the legislative functions of the majilis if the majilis is dissolved by presidential decree before its term ends. It was clear since the introduction of constitutional amendments that President Nazarbayev sought early parliamentary elections and that the dissolution of the majilis, whose term runs out in 2009, was waiting to happen. Doing what Nursultan Nazarbayev expected from them to do, many majilis members hope to regain their seats in parliament in new elections or to receive good positions in government. President Nazarbayev said he appreciated the “historic decision” of the majilis members and that every former majilis deputy would “stay on board” and be given good jobs.

The Central Election Committee announced that new elections to the majilis on party lists were scheduled for August 18, and elections of majilis members proposed by the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan would be held on August 20. Regional elections to local legislative bodies (maslikhats) will be held simultaneously with those to the majilis. The chairman of the Central Election Committee, Kuandyk Turgankulov, expressed confidence that parliamentary elections would be transparent, fair and open. Voters would be given the option of either using electronic voting machines or casting ballot papers.

At first glance, parliamentary elections this year have all the glamour of democratic voting. Proportional representation and the involvement of political parties into the election process on an unprecedented scale are welcomed by opposition. However, the tight schedule of early parliamentary elections, which caught mainstream opposition forces unprepared, greatly reduces the chances of political parties, other than the Nur Otan, to win seats in Parliament. Although in his political reform speech last May, Nursultan Nazarbayev promised financial aid from the state budget to political parties during the election campaign, Central Election Committee chairman Turgankulov said the new regulations were still under consideration and that political parties would have to rely on their own financial sources in this year’s election campaign. In this situation, only Nazarbayev’s Nur Otan party, with its practically inexhaustible resources, will be in a favorable position. To make problems more complicated for the opposition, the government recently adopted a law preventing political parties from uniting into election blocs. This restriction also gives Nur Otan, the most powerful and numerous party, an incontestable advantage over other contenders.

The only option left for other political parties in this circumstance is to merge with larger groups. Main opposition forces, such as the Nagyz Ak Zhol Democratic Party and Socialist Democratic Party, have already reached an agreement to form a single party. Similar attempts to join forces were made by the agrarian Adilet and Ak Zhol parties. The agrarian Aul and the Party of Patriots seem to be pondering the possibilities of a merger. But chances are not as good among other political groups and factions. The Communist Party of Kazakhstan and the People’s Communist Party of Kazakhstan can hardly gloss over their long-standing mutual accusations. The weak and ambiguous Rukhaniat party is simply ignored by others.

The upcoming parliamentary elections are likely to provoke the division of society along ethnic lines. Activists of Slavic national organizations hope for more seats in parliament. On June 10, popular writer Mukhtar Shakhanov announced the foundation of his Khalyk Rukhy (People’s Will) party which declares the promotion of Kazakh language and culture and the revival of national moral values as a priority goal. But it is not likely that Khalyk Rukhy, if registered, will collect the necessary 50,000 signatures before the election.

Given the unequalled strong position of the ruling Nur Otan party, the governing elite need not to unnecessarily violate election procedures and resort to dishonest tactics. The current pre-election setting allows Nur Otan to win most of the seats in parliament without vote rigging or manipulating voting results. But it is already becoming clear that most political parties will not have time even to conduct a proper election campaign.