Wednesday, 14 November 2007

SINO-UZBEK RELATIONS AND THE ENERGY POLITICS OF CENTRAL ASIA

Published in Field Reports

By Erkin Ahmadov (11/14/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Chinese prime minister Wen Jiabao made a tour through Central Asia and Russia starting November 2, 2007. Attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) that took place in the capital of Uzbekistan on November 3 was a part of the tour. Visiting Uzbekistan on November, 3 Premier Jiabao met his counterpart Shavkat Mirziyaev and attended a ceremony to sign a number of documents directed at the improvement of bilateral cooperation between the two states.

Chinese prime minister Wen Jiabao made a tour through Central Asia and Russia starting November 2, 2007. Attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) that took place in the capital of Uzbekistan on November 3 was a part of the tour. Visiting Uzbekistan on November, 3 Premier Jiabao met his counterpart Shavkat Mirziyaev and attended a ceremony to sign a number of documents directed at the improvement of bilateral cooperation between the two states. Meanwhile, the main areas of discussion at the SCO meeting in Tashkent concerned the advancement of large projects in energy, transport and high technology.

During the meeting between the Chinese Premier and his counterpart in Uzbekistan, issues of expansion of economic and humanitarian cooperation between Uzbekistan and China were considered. “The Chinese government regards Uzbekistan as a very important partner in Central Asia and will continue to promote partnership on the basis of equality, mutual trust and benefit, and common development,” said Premier Jiabao in his meeting with Shavkat Mirziyaev.

As result of the visit, the Chinese and Uzbekistani governments issued a joint communiqué pledging further efforts to strengthen bilateral relations and cooperation in various fields. The two prime ministers also attended the signing ceremony of ten documents on closer cooperation in fields of environmental protection, public health, water supply, and finance; a memorandum of understanding between the Uzbek Finance Ministry and the Chinese Ex-Im Bank, a credit agreement between Uzpromstroybank and the Ex-Im Bank, contracts on projects to improve the state of lands and water supply in the Ferghana region, the electrification of the Tukimachi-Angren railway line, and a framework contract on the delivery of 150,000 tons of cotton fiber to China.

Earlier this year, in late April Uzbekistan announced its intention to build a 530-kilometer natural gas pipeline to China. The route would have a capacity of 30 billion cubic meters  (bcm) per year, an amount constituting roughly half of Uzbekistan’s annual gas production. Uzbekistan is the world’s thirteenth largest natural gas producer and the third largest producer among former Soviet states after Russia and Turkmenistan. The key Chinese partner in the new pipeline project is the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). A statement announcing the pipeline plan was released on April 30, signed by Ma Kai, the director of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, and Uzbek Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Azimov.

As Uzbekistan does not share a border with China, it is still unclear which of the Central Asian states will become a transit state for transporting Uzbek gas to China. But if implemented, the Uzbek-Chinese pipeline would undermine Russia’s ability to manipulate the Central Asian gas market and stir up energy competition between Russia and China. This would presumably secure higher profits for Uzbekistan, as well as give it a greater degree of political freedom.

Therefore, it is not accidental that Russia is very interested in advancing the establishment of a Central Asian energy “club” within the SCO framework, which was vigorously promoted by Russian Premier Viktor Zubkov at the SCO meeting in Tashkent. Experts say that the Kremlin is eager to establish an energy club in order to prevent a possible clash with China over Central Asia’s energy resources. While Chinese and Russian leaders act to maintain an image of a strong bilateral relationship between the two states, behind the façade they compete over access to natural resources in Central Asia. In recent years, Chinese companies have moved aggressively to enhance their positions in Central Asia, and this is obvious from the number of projects involving Central Asian states and China.

For instance, active oil and gas exploration is underway in the Aral Sea region, but no major new findings have been announced recently. According to a report citing a presidential decree, a CNCP affiliate will supply Uzbekneftegas with over $209 million in drilling equipment. Of the total, $177.6 million will be covered by a 15-year loan by China’s Ex-Im Bank, and Uzbekneftegas will be responsible for only $31.5 million in financing.

In light of these developments, Jiabao’s visit to Tashkent as a part of the tour through Central Asia and his attendance at the SCO meeting was fruitful not only for China, but for the Uzbek side as well. Like the other major energy producers of the region, Uzbekistan witnesses an “unhurried struggle for spheres of interests starting between the region’s largest centers of influence, Russia and China, within the framework of the SCO”, as political analyst Igor Cherkashenko put it.  Hence, by improving bilateral cooperation with China, Uzbekistan seeks to establish a position as an independent actor within the SCO with its own priorities and capacity to influence economic and political developments in the region.
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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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