The forum bringing Russian and Afghan delegations together on May 14 in Moscow highlighted the need for Afghanistan to accelerate its economic development and engage Russia in its national politics. For Russia, the forum could become a platform for intensified involvement in regional economic development, more effective anti-drug trafficking initiatives, suppression of regional Islamic fundamentalism, and for limiting the U.S. and Chinese influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Since the U.S. increasingly views Central Asia as a source of development for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Russia is especially interested in vying for Afghanistan as a transit and destination point for Caspian and Central Asian energy resources and as a strategic outlet to the Indian Ocean.

The Russian-Afghan forum, organized by Yuri Krupnov from the Russian Institute for Demographics, Migration and Regional Development and hosting 150 participants from the business, government, and public sectors, was dedicated to 90 years of diplomatic relations between Russia and Afghanistan. Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Igor Sechin and the secretary of Russia’s Security Council Nikolai Patrushev headed the Russian delegation. Vice-president Karim Halili represented Afghanistan. Sponsored by Gazprom and Vneshekonombank, the forum discussed the possibility of Russian companies expanding their presence in Afghanistan in the field of production and distribution of energy resources, infrastructure development and trade, among others. It also proposed to utilize the capabilities of the SCO, CIS, EurAsEC, and CSTO to promote economic cooperation between Russia, the Central Asian states, and Afghanistan.

Krupnov believes that Russia, bordering Central Asia, lacks a coherent strategy in Afghanistan and proposes a Marshall Plan approach to the extensive national economic development. According to him, the Afghans, many of whom speak Russian and criticize the U.S. and NATO for building only military bases, welcome Russia’s presence in Afghanistan, especially considering the extensive infrastructure once built by the Soviet specialists in the country. Somewhat echoing the competition of development schemes during the Cold War, Krupnov has further suggested “exporting development” to Afghanistan in the context of the U.S.-promoted but “bankrupt doctrine of ‘exporting democracy’" in the country. Sechin, for instance, stressed that 142 business projects representing 60% of the Afghan economy speak of the previously productive economic relations between Russia and Afghanistan that should be more vigorously cultivated to promote national and regional development.

The President of the National Coalition on Dialogue between the Afghan Tribes, Prince Ali Seradj, emphasized the emerging positive investment climate in Afghanistan, noting that national economic development would also promote regional stability. Ismail Yun, the director of the Cultural Department under the Afghan National Security Council, encouraged Russian businesses to enter the country’s market now in order to gain an early advantage. Afghan Senator Kamar Khosti, in his turn, invited Russia to help Afghanistan with its collapsed infrastructure: "We need Russia to help rebuild destroyed facilities and roads in Afghanistan, which were built by Soviet specialists."

The forum also emphasized the national and regional security situation. In this regard, Viktor Ivanov, the director of Russia’s Federal Service for Narcotics Control, underlined that Afghanistan “critically requires a Marshall Plan.” Patrushev invited the Afghan counterparts to work within the SCO to address the threats of regional terrorism and narcotics trafficking.

The forum concluded with a decision to consider creating an intergovernmental Russian-Afghan commission on trade and economic relations and utilize the capabilities of the regional Russia-led economic and security institutions, as well as respective parliamentary assemblies, to promote economic relations and development in Central and South Asia.

Russia’s revitalized focus on Afghanistan is primarily driven by energy-related considerations and an understanding of a potential strategic loss of Afghanistan and Central Asia. Although Russia might correctly identify its regional strategy in Afghanistan, the question remains whether it has the means to pursue the ends. No doubt, Russia continues to enjoy geopolitical leverage over countries in its extended neighborhood and its slowly depleting currency reserves still give it room for maneuver. Moreover, the military security in Afghanistan is being provided by NATO forces rather than Russian troops, relieving Russia of a substantial burden in providing security in its own backyard. But Russia will have to compete with the development agenda increasingly set by China and the U.S. in the region where stability is also subject to positive relations between India and Pakistan. The global financial and economic downturn will not work to Russia’s absolute advantage either. It remains to be seen whether Krupnov’s Marshall Plan will translate into extensive and effective regional development scheme and bring a strategic asset rather than a liability to Russia.