On February 3, Tajikistan’s Prime Minister Akil Akilov received a letter from his Uzbek counterpart Shavkat Mirziyoev, who requested the Tajik Government to reconsider its construction of the Roghun hydropower station. The Government of Uzbekistan insists that an international and independent assessment of the Roghun construction project should be conducted, and is concerned that the Roghun project may entail disastrous consequences for the entire region.

It should be recalled that the Roghun hydropower station is an incomplete Soviet era construction project on Tajik territory. The project was frozen following the collapse of the Soviet Union due to insufficient funding, but was reinvigorated in 2007. According to the original blueprint, the Roghun station is to become one of the largest in the region with a dam of 335 meters, and a capacity to produce 3. 6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. The station will allow Tajikistan, the poorest country in the region, to overcome its energy deficit and advance its economy. However, to complete the construction, Tajikistan needs complementary funding estimated to between US$ 2 and 4 billion.

The Government of Tajikistan recently decided to mobilize its population in financing the construction. In January 2010, the Government launched a campaign of selling shares in the Roghun station to the public, amounting to about US$1.3 billion in total. To speed up the process and persuade the population to buy shares, the Tajik authorities ran an extensive information campaign. As of today, shares in the JSC “Roghun Hydropower Station” have been sold for a total amount of over US$150 million, according to the Ministry of Finance. 

In a recent open letter, the Prime Minister of Uzbekistan demanded that Tajikistan solicit an international assessment of the Roghun project under the aegis of UN and other international institutions. Uzbekistan’s position is that the construction of such a “monster” will result in an anthropogenic environmental disaster across Central Asia. According to PM Mirziyoev, the project will at best cause serious shortages of water in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the countries located at the lowest reaches of Central Asia’s main rivers.

The Uzbek PM pointed out several threats the Roghun project poses. Among them is the region’s ecological balance, which is already delicate due to the ecological disaster in the Aral Sea. Furthermore, Mirziyoev highlights the risks to the “survival of millions of people in the region, who depend directly on the availability of water for drinking and irrigation”. Finally, Uzbekistan underlined that the Roghun station is located in a seismic zone and an earthquake could lead to a break of the dam, risking the lives of hundreds of thousands.

In his reply, the Tajik PM in return blamed Uzbekistan for the Aral Sea catastrophe due to the excessive irrigation of Uzbekistan’s cotton fields. Akilov pointed to an assessment conducted in 2006 by the German Lahmeyer corporation. The assessment stated that the Roghun project takes into account all risks related to ecological, water balance and anthropogenic issues. The Government of Tajikistan believes the construction of such a facility is the sovereign right of any state, and is in full compliance with international law. Moreover, the Tajik PM emphasized that the project was launched only after Tajikistan mustered support from the World Bank, EBRD and other international institutions.

However, the main reason why Tajikistan decided to resume the Roghun construction is its recurring severe electricity shortages over the last decade. In order to provide the population with the electricity needed for normal existence during the winter period, Tajikistan must construct the Roghun station. Each year, Tajikistan’s government has made a number of efforts to import electricity from neighboring counties, such as Turkmenistan, but has faced obstacles imposed by Uzbekistan, which controls all transport arteries, pipelines and electric power transmission lines leading to Tajikistan. In the absence of other alternatives, Tajikistan believes that constructing the Roghun hydropower station is “the breath of life” and “the only choice”.

Experts believe that the current disagreements between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in the hydro-energy sphere may result in an escalation of the conflict. Russian analyst Azhdar Kurtov states that the “current situation may lead to dramatic results, including strained diplomatic relationships between the neighboring countries, and even displays of power”. Accordingly, last week the press-service of Uzbekistan’s Committee on state border protection made a statement blaming Tajikistan for a gross border violation. The Tajik side replied that its state border guards crossed the interstate border between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan only to catch a cow which had run into the neighbor’s territory. In light of the escalating tensions between the neighbors, even such minor incidents could well become reasons for further discord.