Central Asia in the Energy Transition
Svante E. Cornell and Brenda Shaffer
December 4, 2024
The United States, Europe, the United Nations and more are promoting a top-down energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, which shows no signs of emergence. Under this scenario, Europe and the global market are likely to maintain demand for the energy riches of Central Asia for many decades to come. The gas market of Central Asia itself requires additional gas volumes as well. In order to lower carbon emissions and air pollution and improve public health in Central Asia, the ideal policy in the region is increased access to natural gas that can replace the widespread burning of biomass and lump coal. Current European policies promote expanding electrification and is leading to a new look at nuclear energy. Accordingly, the uranium deposits of Central Asia have become of high commercial and geopolitical interest.
Kazakhstan and the Rise of Middle Powers in Central Asia
Svante E. Cornell
July 31, 2024
A key development in Greater Central Asian affairs is the rise of Middle Powers, states that are displaying considerable agency in shaping the region surrounding them and making their mark on international relations writ large. The first Middle Power to emerge and be recognized as such is Kazakhstan, through a combination of it economic might and its strategic approach to foreign relations. As Central Asia’s outside partners reassess strategies toward the region that have been rendered obsolete by events in the past several years, this new reality should feature centrally in approaches to the region.
Afghanistan Is Still There
S. Frederick Starr
July 12, 2024
Since the U.S.'s abrupt departure from Afghanistan, the Taliban government has opened exten- sive contacts with China, Russia, Pakistan, Turkey, and the Gulf States and some have elevated their ties to the ambassadorial level. No region has more at stake in Afghanistan's evolution than Central Asia and none follow developments there more closely. The U.S. should expand its C5+1 ties with Central Asia to include the sharing of information and discussion of policy choices re- garding Afghanistan. Europe and other friendly powers should do likewise.
Iran’s Security Posture in the South Caucasus After the War in Ukraine
Ilya Roubanis
June 6, 2024
Iran’s engagement in the South Caucasus needs a new diplomatic taxonomy. The invasion of Ukraine reframes the way Iran, Russia, and Turkey engage with each other to define this region. Conceptually, for Iran the war in Ukraine is an opportunity to transition from the margins of a global rules-based system to the epicentre of a regional status quo as a rules maker rather than a pariah. The key to this new taxonomy is a working relationship with Turkey and Russia, reigning over the ambitions of Azerbaijan, and restricting the scope for Israeli influence. In this scheme, Armenia is an instrumental junior partner of geopolitical but limited geoeconomics significance.
Visit also
Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.