China’s Free Riding in Central Asia’s Security Arrangements
By Vali Kaleji
June 20, 2024
Contrary to the economic, financial, and commercial domains where China has supplanted Russia in the five Central Asian states, Beijing is reluctant to assume a similar role in defense and security. China’s strategy, characterized by “free riding” at the expense of Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), has significantly influenced the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s (SCO) passive and conservative stance. Indeed, this aspect of China’s “soft power” has been instrumental in mitigating the escalation of anti-Chinese sentiments and “Sinophobia” within the region. By adopting a free riding approach and refraining from direct intervention in Central Asia’s security arrangements, China has been able to concentrate on economic, trade, and transit relations, particularly the Belt and Road Initiative. This strategy has facilitated China’s ability to address competition and strategic threats in other regions, notably Asia-Pacific and the Indian subcontinent.
The UK Seeks to Engage Central Asia as a Latecomer
By Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu
May 29, 2024
The UK has embarked on a quest to establish a new political framework aimed at enhancing its relations with Central Asia and countering regional rivals. In response to the Russia-Ukraine War and China’s expanding influence in the region, the UK has initiated a high-level strategy to redefine its approach to Central Asia. Nevertheless, there are concerns about the scale and scope of this effort. Even UK authorities are uncertain whether the current regional policies have the capacity to meet these new challenges.
Russia’s Retreat and Counterattack in Central Asia
By Stephen Blank
May 9, 2024
Russian power is retreating from the Caucasus and Central Asia, most prominently with the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh and Washington’s concurrent decision to open discussions with Yerevan on military support. The same process is discernible in Central Asia in the lukewarm support for the war in Ukraine and Kazakhstan’s critique of that war. Other harbingers of the trend are the gradual erosion of Russian language use and China’s dominance in regional finance, trade, and investment. Nevertheless, Moscow still deploys substantial leverage over Central Asia and individual states and can conduct purely domestic policies that negatively affect Central Asian governments and citizens. Moreover, recent indicators suggest that Russia is launching a campaign to restore its hegemonic position in Central Asia. Thus, despite the war in Ukraine and the burdens it has imposed, current Russian policies in Central Asia amount to a determined resistance to its equally observable retreat.
Kazakhstan Resurrects Golden Horde in Political Messaging
By Dmitry Shlapentokh
April 24, 2024
Recently, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev delivered a public address wherein he underscored the significance of the Golden Horde, also known as Ulus Jochi, to Kazakhstan. He emphasized that Kazakhstan stands as the true descendant of the Golden Horde, equating its historical importance to that of the Roman Empire. Tokayev emphasized the importance of ensuring international recognition of this fact. Additionally, he announced the commissioning of a comprehensive multi-volume history of Kazakhstan, with a dedicated volume specifically focusing on Ulus Jochi and its pivotal role in shaping Kazakhstan’s history. Tokayev’s recent revival of this ideology suggests that Kazakhstan, in stark contrast to Russia and implicitly other post-Soviet states, espouses principles of tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.